Two districts, the 1st and 3rd in Portland, would safely remain blue: the former would have gone for Joe Biden 68-29 and the latter 73-25; under the old lines, Biden won them 63-34 and 74-24, respectively. By contrast, the sprawling 2nd, which covers the entire eastern part of the state, would remain firmly Republican, going 61-37 for Donald Trump as opposed to 56-42 in the previous version.
The remaining three districts would all lean democratically, though not to a great extent. The 5th district, currently represented by Democratic Rep. Kurt Schrader, would go a little redder, shifting from 54-44 Biden to 53-44, and would have actually voted for Republican Knute Buehler 52-47 in the run for governor of the United States. 2018, according to Dave’s Redistricting App calculations.
The neighborhood too saw some of the biggest changes between the Democrats’ original map and the final product, giving up portions of the dark-blue Portland area in exchange for meandering turf around the town of Bend. However, the Bend area is in favor of Democrats, so if Schrader can stay next year, this seat should become more favorable to him over time.
Democratic Rep.’s 4th District. Peter DeFazio along the state’s southwest coast, meanwhile, would have turned bluer: After a close 51-47 win for Biden under the old lines, the president would have worn it 55-42 instead using the new map. Oregon is also getting a brand new district in the Portland area, the 6th, which would have gone for Biden 55-42. Of course, there’s no old district to compare this to, though it’s worth noting that Brown would have lost it 49-46 in her 2016 special election and only lost it two years later by a narrow margin of 49, 5-49.3 would have achieved.
Interestingly, a higher proportion of the new 6th is made up of the old 5th compared to the new 5th: 50% of the 6th is from the previous 5th district, representing about 420,000 people, while only 39% of the updated 5th , or 330,000 people, are from the district’s earlier iteration. However, Schrader’s hometown of Canby remains in the 5th, so he’s eager to run to it. (Every other district on the new map is largely formed by its predecessor of the same number.)
In a difficult year for Democrats, therefore, the 5th could potentially flip to the GOP, and perhaps the 6th or even the 4th in a big enough wave. However, if things go well for the party, it will yield a 5-1 advantage in the state delegation, up from the current 4-1 arrangement. As for the legislative cards, those will also capture Democrats’ current majorities, though it would probably be difficult for them to win the two-thirds supermajorities that would prevent Republicans from organizing future quorum-breaking boycotts.
● GO reclassificationRepublicans in the Georgia State Senate have released a congressional draft map representing Democratic Rep.’s 6th district. Lucy McBath redder, while supporting Democrat Carolyn Bourdeaux in the 7th district. However, lawmakers won’t pass proposals until they meet again on Nov. 3, and other GOP leaders may have other gerrymanders in mind.
● IN ReclassificationIndiana Senate Committee Approves New Republican Plans for Congressional and Legislative Reorganization on a party line vote, with a vote for the entire chamber expected on friday. However, the Senate made minor changes to some of its own districts, which would return the House, which had already signed on all three maps, for another vote.
● ME reclassificationMaine’s bipartisan committee agreed Monday on a new state Senate map and sent it, along with plans for Congress and the state house it discussed earlier, to lawmakers for consideration when they meet again on Wednesday. New cards require a two-thirds vote in both houses of the Democrat-led legislature to be passed, as well as Democratic Governor Janet Mills’ signature. All three cards are available here.
● WA reclassification: Washington’s bipartisan redistricting commission has released its first draft of congressional cards, all of which are available here. As they did when they released legislative plans last week, each of the panel’s four commissioners drew up their own plan. If the committee reaches an agreement, its cards will become law, with limited ability for lawmakers to change them first. If not, the reclassification would be handled by the courts.
● OH-Sen: A new internal poll by WPA Intelligence’s primary GOP for former state treasurer Josh Mandel finds Mandel’s leading venture capitalist JD Vance 37-13 for the nomination. That hasn’t changed much from a July WPAI survey conducted on behalf of the Club for Growth, which led Mandel 40-12.
● Easter: Reality has become clear to political adviser Craig Snyder, who in July launched a campaign for the GOP Senate nomination for Pennsylvania by positioning himself as an explicitly anti-Trump Republican: On Monday, Snyder quit the race, saying : “he is unable to generate sufficient support.”
● NY governmentNew York Public Attorney Jumaane Williams, who had previously said he was considering a bid against Kathy Hochul in next year’s Democratic primaries, announced the formation of an exploratory commission on Tuesday and said he would make a final decision “in the next month.”
● TX-38: Army veteran Wesley Hunt, who has a rematch with Democratic Rep. Lizzie Fletcher in Texas’ 7th Congressional District had considered, now says it is his “intention to flee” in what would be the brand new (and solid Republican) 38th district in the Houston suburbs. Lawmakers recently introduced a draft map of Congress, but have yet to act on it.
● Mayor of Cincinnati, Ohio: Hamilton County Clerk of Courts Aftab Pureval earned an endorsement from Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown last week ahead of the Nov. 2 general election.
Pureval takes on City Councilman David Mann, a fellow Democrat who represented the Cincinnati area in the House from 1993 to 1995. (Mann was ousted by Republican Steve Chabot, who fended Pureval in 2018) Pureval defeated Mann 39-29 in the impartial primary of May.
● San Jose, CA MayorSanta Clara County Supervisor Cindy Chavez confirmed this week that she will compete in next year’s open seat race for mayor of San Jose. Chavez joins three councilors in June’s impartial primaries: Raul Peralez, a fellow labor ally, and the corporate Dev Davis and Matt Mahan.
Chavez, who would be the first Latina to hold the office, previously ran for office in 2006 when she served on the city’s city council and vice mayor. However, she was held back by a number of local government scandals, losing to Chuck Reed, a fellow city councilor who presented himself as an outsider, 59-41. However, that was not the end of Chavez’s career in local politics. She became head of the local AFL-CIO and won a special election to the five-member Board of Trustees in 2013.