Ilhan Omar’s career on the line in tough Tuesday primary

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Omar is being vastly outspent on the air, a dynamic that is usually concerning for an incumbent. Melton-Meaux has spent nearly $2.1 million on TV ads, compared to Omar’s $875,000, according to data compiled by the media tracking firm Advertising Analytics. Omar has invested some $400,000 on digital ads but Melton-Meaux has $1.5 million in outside help.

A high-spending super PAC, Americans for Tomorrow’s Future, has also waded into the race, spending close to $2.5 million on mailers and TV ads criticizing Omar and boosting Melton-Meaux. The group had previously contributed to DMFI PAC — a pro-Israel super PAC that unsuccessfully tried to save Rep. Eliot Engel (D-N.Y.) in his primary with Jamaal Bowman — and uses Anedot to process payments, a firm popular with Republicans until it was recently usurped by WinRed.

Another group has sent mailers urging voters who typically vote Republican to participate in the Democratic primary and cast ballots for Melton-Meaux. Voters in Minnesota do not register with a political party.

Omar drew the ire of pro-Israel leaders this year when she made comments that many of them have deemed anti-Semitic. She tweeted once that Israel had “hypnotized the world” and said that U.S. lawmakers supportive of Israel had a dual allegiance to that country and their own.

Progressive groups, who spent big to help Tlaib in her primary last week, have not done much to back up Omar. The congresswoman’s internal polling from early July showed her with a big lead — but some operatives in the party fear this primary will be much closer than Tlaib’s.

Will House Republicans elect their most controversial member yet?

Greene, a QAnon conspiracy theorist and businesswoman, finished 19 points ahead of a crowded June primary field for the safe red seat vacated by retiring Rep. Tom Graves (R-Ga.). But after videos surfaced of Greene calling Black people “slaves to the Democratic Party”, suggesting Muslims cannot serve in government and calling Jewish Democratic megadonor George Soros a Nazi — Republicans in Washington and Georgia took greater interest in John Cowan, who earned the second spot in Tuesday’s runoff.

Recent polling shows a tight contest and some rank-and-file lawmakers are angry that no major outside effort has formed to stop her. A victory by Greene would cause months, if not years, of headaches for the House GOP conference, which only two months ago finally excised Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa), a member who has long harbored an openness toward white nationalism.

Several members of Congress, including House Minority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.), have rallied behind Cowan, fundraising for him and joining him for Zoom events. But after describing Greene’s comments as “appalling” in June, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy now is calling himself neutral — a position that may have dissuaded outside groups from wading in to spend on Cowan’s behalf. President Donald Trump also hasn’t taken sides in the race.

Cowan has suggested that her victory would embarrass the Republican Party and drag down other GOP candidates in Georgia. (“She is not conservative — she’s crazy,” he said in a recent interview.) Greene has not backtracked on any of the statements she made in her videos. In a recent interview, she continued to espouse a conspiracy theory that Soros, a Holocaust survivor, turned Jews in to the Nazis.

Another runoff in a neighboring Georgia district, held by GOP Rep. Doug Collins, has seen a surfeit of outside spending. State Rep. Matt Gurtler and veteran Andrew Clyde are vying for the safe, red seat. The Club for Growth has spent heavily for Gurtler, who has faced criticism during the campaign for posing for a photo with a white supremacist.

The GOP will also choose a likely new member of Congress in a deep-red open Wisconsin seat. The frontrunner there is state Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald, who has been a leading figure in Republicans’ political and policy skirmishes in Madison.

Collin Peterson gets a challenger

House Agriculture Chairman Collin Peterson (D-Minn.) has been Republicans’ white whale for the better part of a decade. Representing a conservative district in western Minnesota, Peterson is in his 15th term, having survived a number of close calls — including in 2016, when he managed to win reelection despite Trump carrying his district by 31 points.

Republicans believe Peterson’s luck will run out this fall against the frontrunner in Tuesday’s primary: Michelle Fischbach, a former state Senate president who briefly served as lieutenant governor.

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